WASHINGTON – In the next 20 years,developing countries will contribute 57 percent of the global gross domestic product. That's up from 49 percent now.
A report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,presented Wednesday,describes the process of “shifting wealth” toward Eastern and Southern countries.
Andrew Mold,senior economist at the OECD Development Centre,stressed that economic might gained by emerging countries like China or India should not be seen as a threat.
“Policy makers should recognize that the net gains from increased prosperity in the developing world can benefit both rich and poor countries alike,” the report says,in describing how emerging developing countries are reshaping world's economy.
For example,as of 2008,developing countries held $4.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves,more than 1.5 times the amount held by the rich world.
The first decade of the 2000s meant strong and stable growth for most of developing world.
“This realignment of the world economy is not a transitory phenomenon,but represents a structural change of historical significance,” OECD's report says.
Unlike the 1990s,when most of developing world was unable to rebuild its economic fortunes,these countries are now starting to catch up to high-income OECD countries.
OECD member countries must have stable economies and democratic governments.
Now the number of converging countries,those that are doubling the average per-capita grown of high-income OECD countries,has risen from 12 to 65. There is a significant reduction in the number of poor countries,from 55 to 25.
At the top of faster-growing nations are China and India,which either tripled or quadrupled the economic expansion rate of the developed world. This incredible growth rate has brought 300 million people out of poverty around the world,the equivalent of the U.S. population.
The report estimates that by 2050,more than half of world's middle classes will be Chinese or Indian citizens.
More people improving their living conditions will mean more pressure on natural resources. “China will become an interdependent importer of supplies,” Mold said. This means putting more weight on global agricultural outputs.
The reports notes that “shifting wealth” is a process “only starting to be understood,” and will create challenges in “environmental sustainability,growing levels of inequality within countries and increased competition.”